Who's For Us-- Who's Against Us... The Battle Inside The Democratic Caucus Over Social Security

Yesterday it was with regret, but not surprise, when we recounted newly elected Democratic hack Janice Hahn's pathetic response to a simple question about protecting Social Security and Medicare. This would have once have been a softball question and an opportunity for a Democratic politician to assure seniors and working families that they're in good hands with the Democrats. Instead, Hahn-- who won her tough primary because she was heavily backed by self-serving but extremely short-sited unions-- used the opportunity to appeal to conservatives:

"Americans want us to get together and come up with common sense solutions... If compromises need to be made, I will certainly follow the lead of the President."

Not a good first impression. This will haunt her forever. Progressives have a very different approach. The biggest Democratic Party congressional caucus in the House is the Progressive Caucus, led by Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Keith Ellison (D-MN). Here's the letter they sent to Nancy Pelosi this week:

We write in strong agreement with your unwavering defense of the Democratic programs that form the bedrock of America’s middle and working classes, and which are overwhelmingly popular.

On July 7, you made very clear that “We are not going to balance the budget on the backs of America’s seniors, women and people with disabilities” and that “we do not support cuts in benefits” for vital safety-net programs. We agree completely.

Especially in these tough economic times, we should not be cutting Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits that millions of our constituents paid into and depend on. Such benefit cuts should be off the table in current debt discussions.

Our Republican colleagues should be embarrassed by their insistence that unless Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits are cut, the nation will default on its debts. Middle-class families have sacrificed enough, and a deal that pushes the American Dream further out of reach, in order to pay for extending tax breaks for the rich and corporations, is simply unacceptable.

We are united as Democrats in saying that it’s time to stand up to the Republican hostage-taking. We will not be forced to vote for a “final agreement” that we do not agree to-- and that the American people do not agree to.

We stand united with you in insisting that benefit cuts for working families, our seniors, children, and people with disabilities must be off the table, and we stand united with you in fighting for millions of Americans who need Democrats to be firmly on their side.

Obama (and Hahn) are more than ready to “balance the budget on the backs of America’s seniors, women and people with disabilities” and "support cuts in benefits” for vital safety-net programs. It's what separates progressives from conservatives inside the Democratic Party and it's why it's so important to pay attention to primaries. Do you think Debra Bowen or Marcy Winograd would be talking about sacrificing seniors and vulnerable families to corporate avarice? And on the first day after election? It's why Blue America urged voters in CA-36 to turn out for Bowen and why we regretted Winograd's willingness to fall into the trap set for her by sleazy Hahn operative Joe Trippi to split the progressive vote and let Hahn slip in as the Democratic nominee so that the contest would be between a conservative and a reactionary rather than between a progressive and a conservative. There are races for Congress just like this shaping up all over America. Aside from our normal candidates page, we have a page dedicated to progressives facing conservative Democrats, Send the Democrats A Message. Right now, our candidates on that page, Wenona Baldenegro (D-AZ) and Mazie Hirono (D-HI) are both proven progressives who are battling two former House members with egregiously right-wing records, respectively Ann Kirkpatrick and Ed Case, two of the worst Members of Congress in our lifetimes, each of whom made a habit of reflexively voting with the GOP at every opportunity.

That letter Grijalva and Ellison sent Pelosi already has over 60 co-signers, Members willing to stand up to the Conservative Consensus that has an iron grip on power Inside-the-Beltway and certainly includes not just the Republican Party and the Blue Dog caucus but even President Obama. Former Blue Dog and current chairman of the DCCC, Steve Israel (D-NY), who could normally be counted on to push the conservative consensus positions on anything and everything told members at a private meeting that entitlements cuts would be damaging politically to the party, and could even hurt candidate recruitment.

All Blue America-endorsed candidates back the letter and Blue America won't be endorsing any incumbents who don't sign on. Needless to say, Janice Hahn will have as much chance of earning Blue America support as Eric Cantor and John Boehner do. So far, the Members who have signed on to Grijalva's and Ellison's letter include:
Sam Farr (D-CA), Marcia Fudge (D-OH), Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), Pete Stark (D-CA), John Conyers (D-MI), Chellie Pingree (D-ME), Jim McDermott (D-WA), Bennie Thompson (D-MS), Hank Johnson (D-GA), Barbara Lee (D-CA), Corrine Brown (D-FL), Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), Jose Serrano (D-NY), Charlie Rangel (D-NY), Lynn Woolsey (D-CA), Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D-IL), Barney Frank (D-MA), Luis Gutierrez (D-IL), Jim McGovern (D-MA), John Lewis (D-GA), David Wu (D-OR), Maxine Waters (D-CA), Donna Edwards (D-MD), Bob Filner (D-CA), Judy Chu (D-CA), Donald Payne (D-NJ), Pete DeFazio (D-OR), Steve Rothman (D-NJ), Steve Cohen (D-TN), Danny Davis (D-IL), Laura Richardson (D-CA), Tim Ryan (D-OH), Frank Pallone (D-NJ), Yvette Clarke (D-NY), Lloyd Doggett (D-TX), John Tierney (D-MA), Lucille Royabal-Allard (D-CA), Jerry Nadler (D-NY), Joe Baca (Blue Dog-CA), Andre Carson (D-IN), Elijah Cummings (D-MI), Mark Critz (D-PA), Maurice Hinchey (D-NY), Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), Silvestre Reyes (D-TX), Betty Sutton (D-OH), Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC), Rush Holt (D-NJ), Zoe Lofgren (D-CA), John Garamendi (D-CA), Henry Waxman (D-CA), Ed Markey (D-MA), Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX), Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO), Grace Napolitano (D-CA), Paul Tonko (D-NY), Mazie Hirono (D-HI), Betty McCollum (D-MN), John Olver (D-MA), Chaka Fattah (D-PA) and Al Green (D-TX).

It will be interesting to see how many of them fold when the White House starts screaming and when they throw in a bone-- probably an unemployment extension. Meanwhile, none of the Democrats who have consistently voted more freuqnetly with Boehner and Cantor than with their own caucus, has signed on the protect Social Security and Medicare. Clearly, right-wing Democrats like Dan Boren (Blue Dog-OK), Jason Altmire (Blue Dog-PA), Mike Ross (Blue Dog-AR), Henry Cuellar (Blue Dog-TX), Jim Matheson (Blue Dog-UT), John Barrow (Blue Dog-GA), Collin Peterson (Blue Dog-MN), Jim Costa (Blue Dog-CA), Joe Donnelly (Blue Dog-IN), Ben Chandler (Blue Dog-KY), Tim Holden (Blue Dog-PA), Mike McIntyre (Blue Dog-NC) and Heath Shuler (Blue Dog-NC)-- the bottom of the barrel-- may not support Obama on anything else, but will back him to the hilt if he sets out to fulfill the conservative dream of gutting Social Security and Medicare.

In Her First Interview After Winning A House Seat, Corrupt ConservaDem Janice Hahn Offers To Bargain Away Social Security & Medicare

Hahn (on the right) is the worst kind of Democrat, one who looks at her constituents as career stepping stones

Tuesday night liberals across the country were greatly cheered by the 6 clear cut victories by progressives-- 5 by landslides-- against Scott Walker's fake candidates in Democratic primaries across Wisconsin. What you didn't read-- not at this blog-- was any cheering for Democratic Party hack Janice Hahn, who won-- narrowly-- her election bid for the west L.A. congressional seat vacated by her disreputable and sleazy crony, Blue Dog Jane Harman.

Hahn, a Democrat in an area where her party enjoys an 18-point registration edge, defeated Republican Craig Huey, 54.6% to 45.4%. But she'll need to start campaigning again soon, as next year's primary is less than a year away.

In an interview Wednesday, Hahn, 59, said she was prepared for both the challenges of her new job and the rigors of a looming campaign.

And she immediately set out to reassure conservatives that they have no reason to not support her. Interviewed on KPCC soon after her sad little victory-- in which so many progressives just abstained-- over a lunatic fringe teabagger, Hahn made it clear that she's ready to take part in dismantling the New Deal, the decades long dream of rightists in America. When asked if she would vote to cut Social Security and Medicare in exchange for raising the debt limit she obfuscated and then let slip her willingness to bargain away the lives of America's most vulnerable citizens, the elderly and infirm. "Americans want us to get together and come up with common sense solutions... If compromises need to be made, I will certainly follow the lead of the President."

That's very different from what we're hearing from Democratic candidates trying to appeal to Democratic-- rather than Republican-- voters. In announcing his intention to run for Congress again, Alan Grayson, a stalwart champion of ordinary working families, made an impassioned speech aimed squarely at weenie-Democrats like Hahn.

Washington is now divided between the Meanies and the Weenies; that's the real two party system today... The Meanies want to take Social Security and Medicare away from grandma and grandpa and the Weenies are quite willing to go along with it and "compromise." Well, people need Social Security and Medicare to live and there's no compromise between life and death; there's no middle ground.

Hahn is exactly what the Democratic congressional caucus does not need-- another despicable lobbyist-driven weenie, pulling the caucus inextricably rightward in the direction of her corporate donors. At the same time she was offering to bargain away the lives of American seniors to avaricious Republican nihilists, the Blue America candidates were making it clear they are on the same page as Grayson-- standing and fighting not just to preserve Medicare and Social Security but to expand and strengthen them. I was especially impressed by a statement from central Florida candidate Nick Ruiz, a very different kind of Democrat than the execrable Hahn.

Whatever debt deal is struck between the two prevailing factions will be primarily a pact of collusion. Thoughtless aristocrats win-- at the expense of the majority of Americans who continue with record losses on a variety of levels. Exchanging cap feathers from largely connected paymasters, the political jesters will cartwheel out of Capitol Hill like ‘winners.’

Make no mistake-- both sides aim to deliver austerity down the barrel of a gun to the American people. And for us, it’s not a matter of whether or not any of the current crop of politicians will block it-- they won’t. It will be a matter of undoing what they’ve done in the next cycle. To do that, we will need more than token Democrats.

Will the U.S. default on its payments? Not likely. But if it does, you can bet all of the major financial interests will know it ahead of time and be short every financial instrument that seems set to implode. Robotic traders know many markets are due for a large correction-- what better way to precipitate it than with Grecian spectacle?

You won’t benefit from this-- but many of them will. And it is why we need a Public Trust-- to hedge against the hedgers.

In every sense, Capitol Hill has already defaulted on its people, and by every measure appears to enjoy the prospects of continuing to do so right through 2012 and beyond, notwithstanding exceptions, such as Bernie Sanders (I-VT) et al.

So what is the jigsaw falling into place for us? The New Deal legacy of widening prosperity is in default. Brick by brick, blow by blow, it is being dissembled under the auspices of ‘reform.’ Cutting Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, unemployment insurance; a paltry minimum wage that remains untethered to the CPI, and thus suppresses all other wages above it by keeping the bottom of the scale, anchored oh so low; a persistently bloated defense budget, rampant tax evasion by patricians and corporations, degradation of the atmosphere and environment, from CO2 levels to worldwide fish stocks-- the corporate hand of fate continues to turn the wheel.

Hoover thought nothing was possible after the Crash of 1929-- FDR everything. What tack would you take? It makes all the difference in the world.

Obama seems to have that Hooverian sense that Hahn can't wait to get behind. Bernie Sanders, an inspiration for every progressive political leader in the country, does not. Sanders, in fact is loudly demanding that Obama keep his campaign promises to protect Social Security and Medicare, promises that helped win him the election against McCain in 2008. This is from a press release from Sander's Senate office:

In a Senate floor speech, Sanders focused on the White House’s newfound interest in Social Security as a target for cuts. “Where does this come from?” Sanders asked. “The president understands that Social Security hasn't contributed one nickel to our deficit. In fact, Social Security has a $2.6 trillion surplus today, can pay out every benefit owed to every eligible American for the next 25 years. Social Security is funded by the payroll tax, not by the U.S. Treasury.”
 
Sanders noted that during Obama’s campaign for president he made clear he would not cut Social Security: “The American people are sick and tired of candidates who run for office and say one thing and then, after they are elected, do something very different.”
 
Sanders cited Obama’s statement from Sept. 6, 2008, when he disagreed with  suggestions by Sen. John McCain’s campaign to raise the Social Security retirement age and to reduce cost-of-living adjustments. “Let me be clear,” Obama said at the time, “I will not do either.”
 
Changing how inflation is measured to determine Social Security benefits is one option the White House injected at the eleventh hour as part of the budget negotiations. Switching to a so-called Chained Consumer Price Index results in lower inflation levels than the current formula used to adjust benefits. The result would amount to a significant cut to Social Security benefits for today’s seniors. Beneficiaries who retire at 65 would get $560 a year less when they turn 75 and $1,000 a year less at age 85.
 
“So, Mr. President, when you ask why the American people are frustrated with politicians, and are increasingly cynical, it has a lot to do with candidates who say one thing and do another thing,” Sanders said.  “If you told the American people you're not going to cut Social Security, then don't cut Social Security. Keep your word.”

Contrast Janice Hahn's willingness to compromise away Social Security and Medicare with this speech yesterday by Bernie Sanders (I-VT):

CA-36 Election Results

Click on the chart to enlarge

Looks like that half million dollars Republican Craig Huey spent out of his own pocket may have earned him a spot in the July run-off against front-runner Janice Hahn who was supported by the L.A. political machine. He appears to have edged progressive champion Debra Bowen by around 200 votes. In 4th place is the other progressive in the race, Marcy Winograd. Many people will say that Marcy played the spoiler and ruined Bowen's chances to make the runoff and beat Hahn. But Marcy has a unique message and had every right to run and she probably wouldn't have run had Bowen not played into Joe Trippi's hands-- Hahn's consultant-- with a bogus Israel pledge meant to lure Marcy into the race and do... exactly what was done. Bowen should never have signed the pledge, just said she supports a two-state solution and the right of the Jewish people to a homeland in Israel. The pledge was created to enrage Marcy and lure her into the race to split the progressive vote and hamper Bowen. It worked.

However... there are still 9,800 absentee votes to be counted, more than enough to make up for the 200 vote lead Huey has over Debra. We may not know what the result is for another week or even two.






UPDATE FROM DOUG KAHN:

It’ll Be Debra Bowen vs. Janice Hahn in CA-36

I’m saying Debra Bowen will make the run-off in CA-36, that a final count will erase the 206 votes margin that separate her from a 2nd place finish. It depends on how good she was at the nuts and bolts of getting people to supporter her, and then getting them to vote. We really don’t know that yet. I think she was very good, but we’ll see.

I supported her, but made what I considered to be a token campaign contribution, because I didn’t think she’d make the run-off. Having two very good progressive candidates (and Marcy Winograd is a very, very good progressive) in a race is a double-whammy; they’ll not only split the vote, but you can expect many progressives to have a bad feeling about the contest, and just not vote.

It’s a Democratic district, for sure; and Blue Dog Jane Harman regularly rolled up 2 to 1 margins over her Republican opponents. But these were, by all accounts, weak candidates, and Harman appeals to older, conservative, and Republican voters; these are all high-propensity voting groups. Democrats outnumber Republicans 5 to 3, but 25% of voters are neither. This is a perfect situation for a tea-bagger; no mainstream Republican politician who has a shot at a seat in Congress thinks about running in the 36th. So an out-of-district wingnut like Huey can pretty much roll.

Harman resigned when she did because she wanted a low turnout election, setting up the contest for another conservative/hack Democrat, Janice Hahn. I don’t know if it was part of that strategy, but it also makes it easier for a teabagger to get a lot of attention and a lot of votes. That can’t be bad in a runoff with any Democrat.

I Thought Bowen was a Long Shot

So you had 3 well-funded, well-known Democrats fighting over 45% of the electorate, and one well-funded idiot drooling over the 27% of voters who are Republicans added to the usual slack-jawed ranters who vote because they think the Republican party has sold out to Socialism. Welcome to the new California election system.

Under these circumstances, my analysis (which is probably a too-generous self-appraisal of what goes on in my head) was that it was going to be Janice Hahn and an actual Republican, with real Democrats bringing up the rear.

Now I think I was wrong. I hope it’s because progressives are enthusiastic about elections these days. I know I am. Recent polling and results in special elections show a sharp reversal from last November’s results.

On Tuesday, the New Hampshire House of Representatives got a new member. In the 4th District, Republican Robert Mead had resigned to become chief of staff to House Speaker Bill O’Brien, another wingnut teabagger. He’s being replaced by Democrat Jennifer Daler, who beat a Republican in a heavily Republican district, and it was a landslide, 58%-42%. More important was how it happened. In a special election that was expected to have a dismal turnout and a highly conservative lean, 20% of voters came to the polls, and the extra voters were Democrats. Howie has a longer explanation going up tomorrow afternoon.

This District is Different

So yes, Debra is 206 votes behind, in third place. She didn’t beat Republican/Wingnut Craig ‘Baby’ Huey at the polls. But she did have a 798 vote edge over him in the vote-by-mail.

None of the media seems to understand that the 36th District has a unique history when it comes to absentee (vote-by-mail) voting. Jane Harman always had a massive vote-by-mail campaign running in general elections, so Democrats in the 36th District are accustomed to voting that way. The usual Republican edge in stay-at-home voters never held true there.

My memory is a bit hazy about the '90s, but I think at least once Harman was behind on election day before pulling it out when mail-in votes were tallied. I remember her spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on sophisticated vote-by-mail operations. We used to collect her mail pieces and crib off them to design our own in Pasadena-area local elections.

My first thought when I saw the LA Times coverage, the 206 votes Debra needed, was that she'd make it through once all the vote-by-mail ballots were counted. I’ve done some math, and I still think so. Here are the numbers on Bowen’s victory over Huey in the vote-by-mail count and defeat at the 261 polling places.

The Numbers

L.A. County reported 53,659 ‘ballots cast/turnout’ (vote-by-mail received plus day of election). 25,949 of those, slightly less than half, were vote-by-mail.

Bowen’s voters:

11,442 total

-5,448 vote-by-mail

=5,994 precinct vote

Huey’s voters:

11,648 total

-4,650 vote-by-mail

=6,998 precinct vote

There are 9,811 untallied votes, and 8,416 of those are vote-by-mail that hadn’t been received by election day. If those 8,416 go the way the mail-in count went, then Bowen would get 1,784 more votes, Huey would get 1,522 more, and Bowen picks up 262 more votes, enough to get her into the runoff.

In California, anyone can apply to vote by mail, and your ballot counts if it arrives by election day or if you drop it off in person. Debra’s chances depend upon how good her campaign was at identifying supporters, getting them to request mail-in ballots, and checking to make sure they mailed it on time.

Crucially, throughout the day on election day they had to examine the precinct lists at the polls to see how many of ‘her’ voters still hadn’t voted or turned in their mail-in ballots. Then, they had to somehow get these people to the polling place either with our without a mail-in ballot. If you’ve requested and received a ballot and haven’t mailed it in, you can still drop it off at any polling place; or you can turn it in unused at your own precinct and use the voting booth.

And then there are the 1,269 ‘provisional’ ballots; an unknown number of those were people who got mail-in ballots, didn’t send them in, and went to their polling place without the ballot. In those cases, the voter casts a ballot, and the vote will count if the Registrar of Voters confirms there was no mail-in.

This is a real test of campaign competency. Bowen is Secretary of State, responsible for California elections. You’d have to really wonder about her viability in a runoff if she didn’t have an efficient vote-by-mail/GOTV operation.

---------------

Late this afternoon Marcy sent an e-mail to her supporters thanking them for their help. She included this paragraph:

"Huey would like to buy his way into Congress, so that the super rich can privatize America and abolish all regulations, including environmental protections. Though few media pundits took him seriously, we must now mobilize to defeat him-- should he make it to the run-off. Given Bowen's strong base of support in the heavily-populated South Bay and Torrance, however, I expect she will make it to the run-off."

This is the time to renew our efforts for Debra Bowen. It's a chance for CA-36 to make a clean sweep of the bad old Jane Harman days and elect a real progressive leader, an independent thinker with a fresh outlook. She's on the Blue America page